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Actualitat:el barril a 50$ es queda? (Read 3170 times)
Roger Layola
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Actualitat:el barril a 50$ es queda?
14.11.2008 a les 02:20:45
 
Adjunto una interessant reflexió extreta de:
http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3695:the-peak-o...

Quote:
The other side of the coin is oil production. Hardly a day goes by now without a report of some major oil development project being cancelled or placed on hold due to high costs and the unavailability of capital. While these delays may have little immediate impact, a few years down the line the results will be disastrous as world oil production will be declining very rapidly.
Always keep in mind the basic proposition of peak oil that the world is still burning oil at the rate of 31 billion barrels a year. Seventy five million barrels a day are coming from currently producing fields that with each passing year will produce anywhere from 4 to 8 percent less oil. It is simple arithmetic to show that with current production declining, fewer new oil producing projects under construction, and major declines in demand a dubious proposition, shortages are in the offing. Thanks to the worsening economic situation the effects of declining oil production - much higher prices and shortages - look to be even closer and more severe than before the financial crisis emerged. Falling prices at the gas pumps are only a temporary distraction: the real troubles are getting closer all the time.



Amb la actual ritme de cancelació de projectes petrolífers per causa de lacrisi del crèdit,en conjunció amb un preu de barril anormalment baix, estem molt més exposats a un declivi de la producció Mundial força més acusat...
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Roger Layola
moderador global

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Posts: 2144
Barcelona
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Re: Actualitat:el barril a 50$ es queda?
Reply #1 - 14.11.2008 a les 02:27:22
 
El wallstreetjournal també es fa ressó d'aquesta problemàtica:
http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/11/12/peak-oil-get-ready-for-the-...

Quote:
The biggest challenge will come between 2010 and 2015, the IEA says in its 2008 World Energy Outlook. For the next couple of years, the oil pipeline is well supplied. But that trails off after 2010. By 2015, the world needs to find an additional 7 million barrels per day of oil above and beyond all the exploration projects currently in the pipeline. And to get that oil to market by the middle of the decade, those exploration projects need to get started now.

But now’s not a good time. Cheaper oil prices have already pushed back a host of new projects, from Saudi Arabia to Canada. Oil below $90 is making Iran think twice about new and much-needed oil investment. At the same time, the short-term swan dive in oil demand in the developed world is pushing OPEC in the opposite direction, with fresh talks of deeper production cuts at or even before the oil cartel’s December meeting.

The challenge, says the IEA, is made harder because of the way the world’s oil markets are evolving. Most new oil field discoveries are in small fields, or offshore, or both—in stark contrast to the onshore super-giant fields of yesteryear. Why does that matter? Because smaller fields and offshore fields decline faster than bigger, onshore fields.

That means that the oil industry has to run even harder to stay in place, because production at oil fields around the world is winding down at an ever-quickening pace. The IEA surveyed more than 800 oil fields around the globe, and estimates production at oil fields is declining at about 6.7% a year today, and will decline by 8.6% in 2030.

That’s with constant investment to keep the fields in reasonable shape; without that upkeep, the decline rate jumps to over 10%. Which means that the world needs to add the equivalent of an Algeria every year through 2030 just to offset that decline, the IEA says.



Problemes de producció petrolífera  a partir del 2010?
Caram quina sorpresa! Aquest article és un reconeixement oficial de que el PEAk OIL està a la cantonada!

Amb aquesta previsió de mercat, creieu que el preu del barril serà estable, o bé pujarà i baixarà com una muntanya Russa (mai més en dit!)?
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